Monday, May 6, 2019

The Sky Is(n't?) Falling

by Eric Baggs

This post originally appeared in my barely read, rarely used blog Datum by Datum in 2016. It has been edited for clarity and context.

There are quite a few ways of getting a bleak look at the world in 2019. One is to follow the media's schizophrenic coverage of police shootings and state brutality. Another is to look at the many awesome instances of uncontrollable deforestation, desertification, and pollution that humans create.

Trees need water, and the water cycle needs trees.
Also, we like to cut trees down.

You can also just look to modern politics in the western world and assume that it's a hopeless mess. Racial divides are becoming more and more relevant - see Facebook's move to ban white nationalists from the platform, their subsequent failure to do so, and their follow-up move to finally obey their own policies - and so are economic divides.

But don't worry!

The world has been facing all of these issues for decades.

Wait, that doesn't comfort you? Yeah, it doesn't help anybody who goes on to higher education in anything related to environmental science, ecology, or urban planning either. Environmental science curricula inherently focuses on solving or preventing damages to the environment, you spend most of your time looking at past failures as a result. Ecology is mostly in the same boat except even more complex and is often concerned with species that are facing extinction (or that have already gone extinct in the wild). Urban planning may seem like the odd man out, but in truth it hugely influences the other two.

At least social scientists get to watch the historic downfall of an empire in slow motion.

Through census data and open source Geographical Information System software like QGIS, practically anyone can visualize data on income inequality and socioeconomic demographic information. That's quite the mouthful, but it essentially means that you or anyone else can in the space of a few weeks go from zero firsthand knowledge of geospatial analysis to producing maps and charts that clearly illustrate the statistics of the world you live in.

A small city like Adelanto in California, with a population of around thirty thousand, can be analyzed through publicly available census data which then allows educated guesses about its socioeconomic status. I performed this type of analysis a couple years ago. It only took an hour or two of my time and my conclusion was that it's a city full of corruption, at least historically, and economic disparity. (Sorry Adelanto, I'm sure you've got great sides too!) A colleague looked up pertinent news stories and articles and found that the police department had been disbanded due to extensive corruption and that the city was courting outside business as a way to revitalize itself in the face of an economic downturn after the closure of a US Air Force base and a subsequent failed 'prison economy'.

(On a side note, I hate private prisons. The humane treatment and rehabilitation of anyone should be on the shoulders of everyone, not just a corporation.)

As of late 2016, Adelanto's future looks much brighter. Cannabis cultivation is set to bring in millions of dollars according to the OC Register. I am hesitant to believe that the cannabis industry is going to be a panacea for the problems of a city like this because it takes more than a few bad eggs to create a police department so corrupt that it need be disbanded. However, signs point to the city as a whole being revitalized in the near future. This endeavor will no doubt help thousands of people who live in Adelanto and, if it goes particularly well, should operate as a successful case study for regulating a drug instead of trying to make war on it.

If the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) is executed properly, then the environmental impacts of an agricultural operation like the ones proposed in Adelanto should be mitigated. The expert opinions of urban planners, ecologists, and environmental scientists should be sought after and heeded to create an industry that belongs instead of destroys. Sadly, if history has taught me anything it's that these expert opinions will be largely disregarded and CEQA will be almost entirely ignored through a loophole and some backroom deals; categorical exemptions are a funny tool for developers. For now though, things are looking up for the city of Adelanto. Additionally, this endeavor is probably good for people who don't live in Adelanto because if they can do it surely everyone else can too.

As late as April of 2019, it appears that Adelanto is lowering their cannabis tax rates. Maintaining the course is something I can respect, but I'll have to touch back on this in the near future to see how it's going. The industries and the city of Adelanto didn't exactly come from great beginnings, but they may be headed to greatness regardless.

The sky probably isn't falling.